Key Social Norms Take-aways Child marriage is shaped by the interaction of restrictive gender norms, cultural marriage practices, and economic conditions rather than economic hardship alone. The discussion emphasizes that inequitable norms prioritizing girls’ roles as wives and household caretakers can limit investment in girls’ education and future opportunities, increasing vulnerability to marriage when crises disrupt schooling and household livelihoods. Addressing child marriage therefore requires interventions that address restrictive gender norms alongside structural and economic drivers and strengthen communication and support from parents and communities.

Objectives This study examined how COVID-19-related economic shocks affected child marriage among adolescent girls in India and Zambia and whether these relationships differed across cultural marriage systems—dowry in India and bride price in Zambia.

Methods The mixed-methods, cross-sectional study collected quantitative and qualitative data in 2022 from 3,049 girls aged 13–18 in India and 1,615 girls aged 15–19 in Zambia. Quantitative analyses used multivariable linear probability regression and predicted probabilities to examine associations between child marriage and individual, socioeconomic, institutional, and COVID-19 economic factors. Qualitative data included focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Gender-related attitudes were measured through a seven-item index assessing girls’ acceptance of scenarios in which husband-to-wife violence was considered justifiable; the study also assessed girls’ attitudes toward child marriage. Cultural practices of dowry and bride price were examined as contextual mechanisms influencing marriage decisions.

Results Child marriage prevalence was 9% in India and approximately 7% in Zambia. In India, greater acceptance of violence against women was significantly associated with child marriage: each additional scenario in which violence was considered justifiable corresponded to a 0.7 percentage-point increase in the probability of marriage before age 18. COVID-19 economic pressures were also associated with increased child marriage in India, with predicted probability rising from 6.5% under low economic harm to 11.35% under high harm. Qualitative findings suggested that reduced dowry demands and lower wedding costs during pandemic restrictions made marriage more economically feasible. In Zambia, economic shocks and girls’ gender attitudes were not significantly associated with child marriage; household wealth was protective, while school closures, inability to pay school fees, and reduced educational aspirations emerged as important contextual drivers.

Conclusions Economic and public health shocks can influence child marriage differently depending on local sociocultural and economic contexts. Prevention strategies should address restrictive gender norms and cultural practices while also protecting girls’ education, strengthening family economic resilience, and maintaining supportive services and safe spaces during crises.