Key Social Norms Take-aways This study provides robust evidence that social, moral, and religious norms at the community level are powerful drivers of FGM/C among girls aged 0–14 in Kenya. A mother’s circumcision status, support for continuation of the practice, and belief in its religious necessity are closely linked to her daughter’s risk of being cut. The presence of a high proportion of women in a community who are cut or who uphold these norms significantly raises the likelihood of continuation. Notably, ethnic diversity (as measured by an ethnic fractionalization index) was associated with lower FGM/C prevalence, suggesting that greater cultural heterogeneity may provide opportunities for shifting reference groups and facilitating norm change.
Objectives To assess the spatial and normative determinants of FGM/C among girls aged 0–14 in Kenya and evaluate how social, religious, and moral norms—alongside geographical and demographic variables—contribute to the persistence or decline of the practice across regions and time.
Methods The study used cross-sectional data from four rounds of Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (1998, 2003, 2008, 2014), focusing on the FGM/C status of daughters. Bayesian hierarchical geo-additive logistic regression models were applied to 2003–2014 pooled data and the 2014 KDHS separately, incorporating spatial and spatio-temporal effects. Key social norms measures included maternal circumcision status, community-level prevalence of FGM/C, community support for its continuation, and belief in its religious necessity. Ethnic fractionalization, religion, education, and household wealth were also examined.
Results Despite a national decline in FGM/C from 9.9% in 1998 to 3.0% in 2014, significant regional disparities persist. Girls whose mothers were cut were up to 27 times more likely to be cut themselves. Communities with high proportions of cut women or support for FGM/C exhibited sharply higher risks for daughters. Muslim religion, Kisii and Somali ethnicity, and residence in North-Eastern Kenya were also associated with increased risk. In contrast, greater ethnic diversity was associated with lower FGM/C prevalence, possibly due to exposure to alternative reference groups.
Conclusions FGM/C persists in Kenya through entrenched social norms and intergenerational transmission. Interventions must target community-level attitudes, religious justifications, and interethnic dynamics. Spatially targeted, norm-sensitive, and multi-sectoral strategies are essential to accelerate abandonment of FGM/C and protect the rights and health of girls.